Polling for POTUS

 As many of you are aware I have been doing some polling on Twitter.  They recently introduced a polling function that allows you to let people choose between two options.  I have been using that function to give people choices between Republican presidential candidates.

Most polls ask people who their choice is for president, allowing them to choose from among all the people in the field.  My polling forces people to choose between two options, and therefore tells a much different story.

Of course I am no professional pollster and these results have to be considered in light of the conditions the poll is taken in.  The pool of voters here includes only people who vote on Twitter.  Mostly the votes come from my followers but as people retweet the poll it can expand from there.  Of course most of those 33K people don’t even see the poll, much less participate, but the number of people able to vote is still pretty large.

I should say up front that I Stand With Rand, and so there is that bias.  I have also made it clear I do not prefer Bush or Christie, so there is some bias there.  But for the most part my followers are Republican and conservative, with libertarian and anti-establishment leanings.  I may be wrong but I suspect these results would probably match what Fox News would find if they polled their viewers.

So with those disclaimers, let us see what the data is telling us.  I will start with a single poll that tells a very clear story.  When asked to choose between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump there were 430 votes cast, the largest number of votes of any of these polls. 67% chose Cruz and 33% chose Trump.

How do we reconcile this with national polls that show Donald Trump leading Ted Cruz?  The answer is simple.  We have three groups voting here.  There are Trump supporters and Cruz supporters and then all of the other people who support someone else, who must now choose between these two.  Given the choice, that third group came down solidly for Ted Cruz, rather than Donald Trump.

Donald Trump also lost to Rand Paul by a margin of 55 to 45%.  Again, since I Stand With Rand it could be that my followers are also biased toward Rand; but it once again supports the idea that the plurality enjoyed by the frontrunner is not a majority.

In the next poll we pitted Donald Trump against Jeb Bush.  Where Ted Cruz beat Donald Trump, Jeb Bush lost badly, 74-26%.  Voters prefer Trump to Bush.

We then pitted Jeb Bush against Rand Paul, and Bush lost even worse by a margin of 83-17%.  Donald Trump did better against Rand Paul than Jeb Bush did. 

So then we put Jeb Bush against Ted Cruz and it wasn’t even close.  Ted Cruz jumped out to a lead of 92% to Jeb’s 8% and people stopped voting because it was no contest.  Jeb Bush has virtually no support here.

We tried Chris Christie against Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina and he lost to both.  Fiorina did a little better than Carson against him.

We pitted Rubio against Carson and Rubio won that battle, but it was not a blowout.

The polling continues, but I think it is time to stop and do a little analysis.

It has long baffled me how Republicans ever nominated John McCain.  We hated John McCain, and still do, and yet he won the nomination.  Most Republicans were unhappy with the nominee chosen by Republicans.  I understand how it happened, of course, but it still blows my mind.

I am going to now draw some conclusions.  Perhaps this is premature, but I don’t think so.  First, Republicans are not going to nominate Jeb Bush.  There is no chance.  I think it is fair to say that Jeb Bush is the least favorite person seeking the nomination.

As I poll there are a lot of people who comment.  Trump and Cruz and Paul all have very vocal supporters and some organization and enthusiasm.  There is enthusiasm for Rubio and Carson and even Christie.  There is no enthusiasm for Jeb Bush.  There are no rabid Bush supporters.  Jeb Bush needs to exit and let voters narrow their focus, since he has no chance of winning.

Donald Trump is the frontrunner, and his core of support is solid.  But the people who do not support Trump are pretty energized against him.  Many say they would never support him and would support anyone else.  His negatives are very high, higher than anyone except Jeb Bush.  If Donald Trump wins he will essentially be another John McCain.

I did not poll Graham or Pataki or Huckabee because they are not going to be president.  They need to exit the race, so that Republican voters can start making up their minds.

As for Rubio-Carson-Fiorina-Cruz-Christie-Paul, I think voters are still sorting out their preferences. We still have not cast any votes, and will not for a month or two.  This is clearly just a snapshot in time, and voter opinions will evolve over time.  But if you ask me, most voters have made up their minds about Jeb Bush and Donald Trump.

If you are a Republican primary voter, I would ask that you start carefully considering your choices.  You probably already have a preference, but I would ask that you choose two others that would be acceptable.  And it is ok to decide there are candidates that are unacceptable.  But I do not want to end up with another John McCain.

At some point Republicans need to come together around the best choice for president.  There are no perfect choices, but some are better than others.  The more we discuss our options rather than simply fighting everyone who is not our favorite the more likely we will make a good choice.